Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics ›› 2023, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (5): 1225-1234.doi: 10.23919/JSEE.2023.000124

• Systems Engineering • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Research on strategic risk identification method of equipment system development based on system dynamics

Xinfeng WANG(), Tao WANG(), Xin ZHOU(), Yanfeng WANG()   

  1. 1 College of Systems Engineering, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073, China
  • Received:2022-10-25 Online:2023-10-18 Published:2023-10-30
  • Contact: Xinfeng WANG E-mail:wxf_nudt@126.com;Wangtao1976@nudt.edu.cn;Zhouxin09@nudt.edu.cn;191436027@qq.com
  • About author:
    WANG Xinfeng was born in 1977. He received his B.E., M.E. and Ph.D. degrees in mechanical engineering from National University of Defense Technology, Changsha, Hunan, China, in 1998, 2001, and 2005, respectively. He is an associate researcher at National University of Defense Technology. His research interests are strategic management engineering and risk management. E-mail: wxf_nudt@126.com

    WANG Tao was born in 1976. He received his B.E., M.E. and Ph.D. degrees in computer science and engineering from National University of Defense Technology, Changsha, Hunan, China, in 1998, 2001, and 2007, respectively. He is an associate professor at National University of Defense Technology. His research interests are strategic management engineering, systems engineering, and systems simulation. E-mail: Wangtao1976@nudt.edu.cn

    ZHOU Xin was born in 1990. He received his B.E. and M.E. degrees in control science and engineering, Ph.D. degree in management science and engineering from National University of Defense Technology, Changsha, Hunan, China, in 2013, 2016, and 2019, respectively. His research interests are strategic management engineering and unmanned system design. E-mail: Zhouxin09@nudt.edu.cn

    WANG Yanfeng was born in 1984. He received his Ph.D. degree from the Second Artillery Command College, Wuhan, Hubei, China, in 2017. He is a lecturer at National University of Defense Technology. His research interests are strategic management engineering and system concept modeling. E-mail: 191436027@qq.com

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Abstract:

Strategic management of equipment system development must attach importance to effective strategic risk management. Aiming at the identification of strategic risk of equipment system development, firstly, the source of strategic risk of equipment system development is analyzed and classified. Based on this, a causal loop diagram of strategic risk of equipment system development based on system dynamics is established. The system dynamics analysis software Vensim PLE is used to carry out the risk influencing factors analysis, risk consequences analysis, risk feedback loop identification and corresponding pre-control measures, and achieves a good risk identification effect.

Key words: equipment system development strategy management, strategic risk management, risk identification, system dynamics, loop diagram of causality

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