Abstract:

For the deficiency that the traditional single forecast methods could not forecast electronic equipment states, a combined forecast method based on the hidden Markov model (HMM) and least square support vector machine (LS-SVM) is presented. The multi-agent genetic algorithm (MAGA) is used to estimate parameters of HMM to overcome the problem that the Baum-Welch algorithm is easy to fall into local optimal solution. The state condition probability is introduced into the HMM modeling process to reduce the effect of uncertain factors. MAGA is used to estimate parameters of LS-SVM. Moreover, pruning algorithms are used to estimate parameters to get the sparse approximation of LS-SVM so as to increase the ranging performance. On the basis of these, the combined forecast model of electronic equipment states is established. The example results show the superiority of the combined forecast model in terms of forecast precision, calculation speed and stability.