Abstract:

This paper expresses the efficient outputs of decisionmaking unit (DMU) as the sum of “average outputs” forecasted by a GM (1, N) model and "increased outputs" which reflect the difficulty to realize efficient outputs. The increased outputs are solved by linear programming using data envelopment analysis efficiency theories, wherein a new sample is introduced whose inputs are equal to the budget in the issue No. n + 1 and outputs are forecasted by the GM (1, N) model. The shortcoming in the existing methods that the forecasted efficient outputs may be less than the possible actual outputs according to developing trends of input-output rate in the periods of pre-n is overcome. The new prediction method provides decision-makers with more decisionmaking information, and the initial conditions are easy to be given.