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Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics ›› 2022, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (6): 1224-1237.doi: 10.23919/JSEE.2022.000144

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  • 收稿日期:2021-01-31 出版日期:2022-12-18 发布日期:2022-12-24

Risk transmission evaluation for parallel construction of warships based on IFCM and the cloud model

Jun GONG(), Tao HU(), Lu YAO   

  1. 1 Department of Management Engineering and Equipment Economics, Naval University of Engineering, Wuhan 430033, China
  • Received:2021-01-31 Online:2022-12-18 Published:2022-12-24
  • Contact: Jun GONG E-mail:47224843@qq.com;hutao188@sohu.com
  • About author:
    GONG Jun was born in 1982. He is a Ph.D. and a lecturer at the Department of Management Engineering and Equipment Economics, Naval University of Engineering. As a project leader, he presided over two key naval projects, and more than 10 scientific research projects. In recent years, he published nearly 30 academic papers in core journals, one monograph and five teaching materials, and was selected as the middle-aged and young discipline leader of Naval University of Engineering. His research interests are complex system modeling and simulation, equipment quality management, system management and others. E-mail: 47224843@qq.com

    HU Tao was born in 1970. He is a Ph.D. and a professor at the Department of Management Engineering and Equipment Economics, Naval University of Engineering. As the project leader, he has presided over more than 30 military level scientific research projects, published more than 70 academic papers in core journals, and more than 10 monographs, and won two third prizes for military scientific and technological progress. His research interests are the research and application of equipment management, system management and other fields. E-mail: hutao188@sohu.com

    YAO Lu was born in 1979. He received his Ph.D. degree from Huazhong University of Science and Technology. He is an associate professor at the Department of Management Engineering and Equipment Economics, Naval University of Engineering. As a project leader, he has presided over more than 20 military level scientific research projects, and published more than 30 academic papers in core journals. His research interests include information ma-nagement, and system management. E-mail: yaoluV@163.com
  • Supported by:
    This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (71501183).

Abstract:

To cope with multi-directional transmission coupling, spreading, amplification, and chain reaction of risks during multi-project parallel construction of warships, a risk transmission evaluation method is proposed, which integrates an intuitionistic cloud model with a fuzzy cognitive map. By virtue of expectancy $ {\rm{Ex}} $ , entropy ${\rm{En}}$ , and hyper entropy ${\rm{He}}$ , the risk fuzziness and randomness of the knowledge of experts are organically combined to develop a method for converting bi-linguistic variable decision-making information into the quantitative information of the intuitionistic normal cloud (INC) model. Subsequently, the threshold function and weighted summation operation in the traditional fuzzy cognitive map is converted into the INC ordered weighted averaging operator to create the risk transmission model based on the intuitionistic fuzzy cognitive map (IFCM) and the algorithm for solving it. Subsequently, the risk influence sequencing method based on INC and the risk rating method based on nearness are proposed on the basis of Monte Carlo simulation in order to realize the mutual conversion of the qualitative and quantitative information in the risk evaluation results. Example analysis is presented to verify the effectiveness and practicality of the methods.

Key words: risk evaluation, multi-project parallel, intuitionistic fuzzy cognitive map (IFCM), intuitionistic normal cloud (INC) model, warship construction