ADC-GERT network parameter estimation model for mission effectiveness of joint operation system

doi:10.23919/JSEE.2021.000119

Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics ›› 2021, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (6): 1394-1406.doi: 10.23919/JSEE.2021.000119

收稿日期:2020-11-24 出版日期:2022-01-05 发布日期:2022-01-05

ADC-GERT network parameter estimation model for mission effectiveness of joint operation system

Zhigeng FANG*(), Shuang WU(), Xiaoli ZHANG(), Yunke SUN()

¹ College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 210016, China

Received:2020-11-24 Online:2022-01-05 Published:2022-01-05
Contact: Zhigeng FANG E-mail:zhigengfang@163.com;ws0222@nuaa.edu.cn;sweetain@nuaa.edu.cn;syk19961218@163.com
About author:|FANG Zhigeng was born in 1962. He received his Ph.D. degree in management from Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing, China, in 2007. In 2005, he joined the College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, where he is currently a professor. His research interests include reliability engineering and management of complex equipment development. E-mail: zhigengfang@163.com||WU Shuang was born in 1993. She received her M.S. degree in business administration from Zhejiang Normal University in 2018. She is currently pursuing her Ph.D. degree with the same university. Her research interests include systems effectiveness evaluation and management of complex equipment development. E-mail: ws0222@nuaa.edu.cn||ZHANG Xiaoli was born in 1996. She received her B.S. degree in information and computing science from Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics in 2018. She is currently pursuing her M.S. degree with the same university. Her research interests include systems effectiveness evaluation and management of complex equipment development. E-mail: sweetain@nuaa.edu.cn||SUN Yunke was born in 1996. She received her B.S. degree in industrial engineering from Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics in 2018. She is currently pursuing her M.S. degree with the same university. Her research interests include systems effectiveness evaluation and management of complex equipment development. E-mail: syk19961218@163.com
Supported by:
This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (72071111; 71801127; 71671091), the NSFC and the UK Royal Society joint project (71811530338), the Special Postdoctoral Fund of China (2019TQ0150), the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China (NC2019003), and the Intelligence Introduction Base of the Ministry of Science and Technology (G20190010178).

摘要/Abstract

Abstract:

Effectiveness evaluation of the joint operation system is an important basis for the demonstration and development of weapon equipment. With the consideration that existing models of system effectiveness evaluation seldom describe the structural relationship among equipment clearly as well as reflect the dynamic, the analog-to-digital converter-graphical evaluation and review technique (ADC-GERT) network parameter estimation model is proposed based on the ADC model and the joint operation system structure. Firstly, analysis of the joint operation system structure and operation process is conducted to build the GERT network, where equipment subsystems are nodes and activities are directed arches. Then the mission effectiveness of equipment subsystems is calculated by the ADC model. The probability transfer parameters are modified by the mission effectiveness of equipment subsystems based on the Bayesian theorem, with the ADC-GERT network parameter estimation model constructed. Finally, a case study is used to validate the efficiency and dynamic of the ADC-GERT network parameter estimation model.

Key words: joint operation system, system mission effectiveness, analog-to-digital converter (ADC) model, graphical evaluation and review technique (GERT), parameter estimation

. [J]. Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2021, 32(6): 1394-1406.

Zhigeng FANG, Shuang WU, Xiaoli ZHANG, Yunke SUN. ADC-GERT network parameter estimation model for mission effectiveness of joint operation system[J]. Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics, 2021, 32(6): 1394-1406.

图/表 14

参考文献 37

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Node i	Equipment subsystem	Failure rate $ {\lambda _i} $	Repair rate $ {\mu _i} $	Arc i-j	Activity $\left( {i,j} \right)$	Capacity of the equipment subsystem $i$ in activity $\left( {i,j} \right)$ , ${c_{ij}}$	Time distribution function $ f\left( {{t_{ij}}} \right) $
1	Early warning airplane/radar	0.142 9	0.416 7	1-2	Early warning airplane detects target	0.850 0	$N(12,3)$
1	Early warning airplane/radar	0.018 2	0.357 1	1-3	Early warning radar detects target	0.900 0	$N(6,1.8)$
2	Early warning airplane	0.142 9	0.416 7	2-4	Early warning airplane transmits target information to multifunction radar	0.850 0	$N(15,3)$
3	Early warning radar	0.018 2	0.357 1	3-4	Early warning radar transmits target information to multifunction radar	0.900 0	$N(3,1.2)$
4	Multifunction radar	0.008 3	0.400 0	4-5	Multifunction radar transmits target dynamic information to command and control center	0.850 0	$N(24,6)$
5	Command and control center	0.005 7	0.250 0	5-5’	Command and control center confirms target type	0.870 0	$N(4.8,1.2)$
5′	Command and control center	0.005 7	0.250 0	5′-4	Command and control center orders multifunction radar target to keep track of target	0.850 0	$ N(5.4,0.9) $
5′	Command and control center	0.005 7	0.250 0	5′-6	Command and control center orders launch station launching missile	0.900 0	$N(6,1.8)$
6	Launch station	0.004 1	0.434 8	6-7	Launch station launches interceptor missile	0.880 0	$ N(4.8,0.6) $
7	Interceptor missile	0.294 1	0.833 3	7-8	Interceptor missile hits target	0.850 0	$N(5.4,0.6)$

Arc i-j	Subsystem effectiveness ${E_{ij}}$	The probability of activity $\left( {i,j} \right)$ ${p_{ij}}$	Modified transfer probability ${p_{{E_{ij}}}}$
1-2	0.632 5	0.470 0	0.443 9
1-3	0.808 7	0.450 0	0.543 3
2-4	0.670 1	0.900 0	0.963 3
3-4	0.856 4	0.850 0	0.991 1
4-5	0.832 4	0.850 0	0.996 3
5-5′	0.850 6	0.900 0	0.997 5
5′-4	0.831 0	0.200 0	0.212 0
5′-6	0.879 9	0.700 0	0.785 5
6-7	0.871 8	0.880 0	0.998 7
7-8	0.627 9	0.800 0	0.918 7

ADC-GERT network parameter estimation model for mission effectiveness of joint operation system

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